PUT. THAT COFFEE. DOWN.

To you Obama supporters, let me share with you a fun factoid that John King of CNN was kind enough to spook me with last night during my celebratory mood.  Here's a mathematical fact that will bring you right back down to Earth as it did me.  Perhaps you've already heard it.  

I hope you don't mind if I kick aside some of these champagne bottles from your little party last night and make myself comfortable while I tell you this.

Here goes:

If Barack Obama sweeps every remaining primary and caucus in every remaining state between now and the end of the primaries, and beats Hillary Clinton by a 55% to 45% margin in each one, he will still not have enough delegates to take the nomination.

I see you are awake now.  Good.  Have an Excedrin and a glass of water and follow me over the fold.

After Obama swept four states last weekend, the general sentiment from Obama supporters was that those victories were another step in a long path between here and Denver.  In contemplating the primaries in D.C., Virginia and Maryland, there were diaries and posts and reports in the media and blogs, most with the same general message:  Obama will likely win those primaries.

It was expected.  Except for some quibbling at the edges about maybe Virginia will go Clinton, maybe not, I think it is safe to say that the vast majority of Obama supporters and even many Clinton supporters believed that  the Potomac Primaries were predictably Obama's to lose.

So he won them.  As expected.  

And now we see posts crowing about how the Obama campaign "crossed a line" and how Obama "had sealed it up with Virginia" and how Obama "would beat Hillary in her own demographics" and "she should concede" and "I count sixteen chickens in these eggs".  

I wrote a diary earlier this week--this week!--warning against underestimation and cocksuredness, although I don't believe I used the word cocksuredness because I wasn't certain at the time that this site didn't have a filter that would delete that.  

Look, I love celebration.  I love it a lot.  I love it so much it hurts sometimes, usually on a Sunday morning when my kids want to play and all I want to do is go shave my tongue from all the celebrating I did but don't remember, but which is nevertheless evidenced by a crumpled credit card slip informing me that I somehow racked up a $478.93 bar tab at T.G.I. Friday's hanging out on guys' night.

Yesterday was great, and I don't think anyone can deny that it was a resounding victory.  And people like teacherken always make it difficult to tamp down expectations when presenting powerful and persuasive arguments why Obama's position looks good.

But I keep thinking of the long list of politicians who were sure they were on the path to victory until they were not.  

Of course I know that the Obama camp is not in the habit of underestimating Clinton.  Of course I am aware that they have not suffered a noticeable misstep in a month, and that this may be one of the best-run campaigns we have seen in a generation.  That is all understood.

But let me play Matt Hooper to your Mayor Vaughn for just a moment: Yes, this is probably Obama's to lose, yes, it is probably not likely that Clinton will catch up.  But I want to be sure.  You want to be sure.  We all want to be sure.  

I know I am pressing message similar to that of my last diary, but as earnestly as possible, In all seriousness, and with the understanding that this type of diary is wearing thin, I beg you:

Don't get caught up in math.  Don't get caught up in the game of crunching delegate numbers.  Because that is stunningly analogous to counting chickens before they hatch.  It really, really is.  I cringe when I see it, because I saw the same electoral vote number-crunching in 2004.  When we lost.

Yesterday Hillary Clinton landed in Texas and spoke to a whipped-up capacity crowd crowd in El Paso.  Those people were thrilled, they were geared up, and they looked ready to fight.  It provides me no comfort that across the state from where she spoke the Alamo stood, because the very last thing anyone competing with the Clintons wants is the Clintons' backs against the wall.

Everyone is wrong if they think nothing bad happened to Barack Obama last night, because something significant changed in the race to his disadvantage.   Hillary Clinton became cornered and is now decidedly on the defensive.  That is a dangerous place to face her.

If you support Obama, you should do one thing today.  Just one.

Go to the campaign website and volunteer to help.  

I can't speak for others, but I will tell you that it is simply not enough for me to stand by and watch what this hard-bitten cynic believes is a transformational moment in our nation's history unfold.  I can't just watch it happen.  It's not enough.  I have to help make it happen.  I can't head a scrap metal drive to assist the war in Europe or the Pacific, I can't join the Freedom Rides for civil rights, or march on the Washington mall to watch King speak about his dream of America.  Those moments were the moments in time of our parents and our grandparents.

This time, this moment, is ours, and when it is gone, it will be gone.  I don't want to miss that.  I simply can't be a spectator to history.

Go to the website.  Sign up to phonebank people.  You get a list of names and numbers and a script handed to you on a platter.  And when you speak to the people you call--as shy as you may be--you will find that once you have made a couple of calls, you want to keep calling.  

If you live in Ohio, or Texas, or Wisconsin, or Vermont, or Rhode Island, or Hawaii, call your local Obama Campaign Headquarters and ask them if you can help.

You can do everything from door-to-door canvassing to making meals for phonebankers and campaign staff.  

Every effort, no matter how small, helping to advance the cause you believe in makes you a participant to history.

It feels great to do it.  It really does.  

Go.  

Participate.  Work.  Fight.

Make history.